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Friday, August 18, 2017

"Barzani's Referendum and the RV" - Islandg1211 Update 8-18-17

Islandg1211

BARZANI'S REFERENDUM & THE RV


It's difficult to see through hype. This referendum on its face is a non-starter:

Turkey has directly stated that they will not support an independent Kurdistan. All Turkey has to do is shut down the pipeline. That's it, game over for Kurdistan. There's no way Turkey will allow an independent Kurdistan, and their president will act.

Iran has directly said that they do not support an independent Kurdistan. Iran's militias are staying in Iraq, and they, combined with Iraq's troops could easily blockade an independent Kurdistan. Iran and Iraq could capture and hold Kirkuk oil fields and pump out the oil East into Iran. Kurdistan would run out of money within a very short time with Kirkuk's oil.

Sadre has said he is not for an independent Kurdistan along with Iran's Shiite leader. Kurdistan would loose support from within their borders from their Shiite population. Even in Kurdistan the religious leaders still hold power.

Abadi has made agreements with Iran and Saudi Arabia to pump out Iraq's oil east and west so it doesn't have to go north through Kurdistan. He's buying oil tankers and the Port of Faw is operational.

Basra is booming. Abadi positioned Iraq to not having to "bend the knee" (yeah, I'm a big Game of Thrones fan) to Erbil because he is developing alternative oil export routes. Abadi had a good offer of splitting Kirkuk's 50/50 one year ago....but, we need a LAW!

The Kurds are completely responsible to come to Baghdad, sign agreements, and get the HCL law passed and settle the contested Article 140 areas.

Abadi isn't going to give Erbil their budget until that is settled. Good for him. Abadi directly said that a vote isn't Constitutional, but he would not send in troops to stop it. Again, good for him for not creating chaos, protests, and Marshall Law that would only alienate the Kurds from Baghdad. Let the voters figure out the reality of their situation on their own.

We are all sympathetic to a the largest group of people without their own country that are stuck between the Sunni and Shiite never ending conflict, that Saddam tried to exterminate. Again, they are our strongest allies. We will keep a base there. But, the reality is that an independent country isn't happening without the support of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and the US.

Barzani and Abadi are both rational and they will come to an agreement that both knew had to get done right after the defeat of ISIS. Why? Because the reconstruction isn't going to be successful without that security.

Barzani's referendum may play well with his constituents, but it doesn't work for the international investors and oil companies. Look at what's happening the last few weeks, Abadi is getting mega deals and even is going to facilitate Saudi-Iran relations. Who would sign a deal with Barzani when they don't know what country it's going to be or the reaction of Iran and Turkey? It's one thing to drill for oil when the US has your back, it's another thing when they don't.

Barzani is loosing money right now. Baghdad will pay the troops, but not Erbil. Investors would rather invest with Baghdad right now then Erbil. That's a shift and Barzani knows that he can't spend months and months on holding this independence idea over everybody's head. He has to solve it.

IMO Barzani was using the referendum as a negotiating tactic. He floated the idea, and the other countries shot it down. He still gets political points for trying. He may get a better with Baghdad, but I suspect that he isn't going to get another more than last year's 50/50 split on the contested areas in Kirkuk.

In two weeks, ISIS will be declared defeated.

I believe BARZANI WILL REACH AN AGREEMENT ON ARTICLE 140, THE GOI WILL HAVE AN HCL BILL THAT KURDS WILL VOTE FOR, AND THE RV WILL HAPPEN as the referendum gets "postponed" until Turkey and Iran agree to it, which isn't going to happen.

Then reconstruction can truly move forward. Barzani can't keep going with this vote because he's losing business deals from the unstable situation. He will make a settlement.

Source: Dinar Recaps

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